March Madness - Hot or Cold

As March plods on, so do I.  Here is a list of hot and cold teams that could potentially bust your brackets.  The hot teams are mostly just teams that have either won their conference tournament or are playing very well.  Note that these are not upset picks (I will have a sleeper picks segment coming soon).   The cold teams are teams that have limped to the finish or struggled down the stretch.  It's always good to pick a team that has been hot down the stretch- remember Connecticut in 2011? They won their last 5 games of the regular season, then the Big East tournament.  They of course went on to win the national championship.  Remember Missouri last year? They didn't play well in the Big 12 tournament and lost in the first round to Norfolk State even though they were a 2 seed.  How hot/cold a team is going into the tournament not only gives a glimpse into how they are playing, but how they might be looking at the games from a confidence aspect.  Is it a "Let's go out and win the whole thing" type mentality, or a "Let's not lose" mentality.  While I can't give you a glimpse into the psyche of the teams, I can tell you who is playing their best (or worst) basketball at the moment.  Here is my 2013 March Madness "Hot or Cold" post. (All times Eastern)

HOT: (4) Saint Louis - There might not be a team playing better basketball at the moment than the Saint Louis University Bilikins. They are 27-6 on the season with a 13-3 conference record out of the Atlantic 10. They won both the regular season crown and the A-10 conference tournament.  On January 19th they lost to lowly Rhode Island.  It seemed like Saint Louis was destined for mediocrity, and they would once again be on the bubble.  But since that day they have won an incredible 16 out of their last 17 games, including 4 wins over ranked teams, including 3 wins over Butler, and 2 against VCU.  Their only loss in that stretch was in overtime on the road against Xavier.  Saint Louis has a great group of seniors and can shoot the three very well.  They have a dynamic backcourt, and if history is any indicator, it helps to have one of those if you are going to make a deep tournament run. They take on 13 seeded New Mexico State on Thursday, March 21 at 2:10 pm. 

COLD: (4) Michigan - Another 4 seed, but Michigan is in a completely different situation than Saint Louis. After starting the season 16-0, and at one point boasting a 20-1 record, Michigan has fallen from grace over the last few weeks.  The various bracket projections had them as a 1 seed all year until they fell all the way down to a 4.  How did this happen? They only managed 5 wins in their last 12 games.  A 5-7 record down the stretch is nothing to write home about.  Some of these losses are justified (Indiana twice, a half court buzzer beater against Wisconsin), but it's how the Wolverines are losing that bothers me.  They blew 8+ point leads against Wisconsin twice, Indiana, and against Penn State, one of the Nittany Lions' two Big Ten victories.  Michigan's overall body of work is still very impressive, but they are not playing they best ball, and rely too heavily on All-American point guard Trey Burke.  He's good, but he can't do everything.  Michigan will take on a tough 13 seeded South Dakota State team led by star guard Nate Wolters Thursday, March 21 at 7:15 pm.  The good news for Michigan: they are playing close to home in Detroit; just a 55 minute drive from the Michigan campus.

HOT: (1) Louisville - Yeah, I know you would imagine that the number one overall seed would be playing pretty well.  Honestly, "pretty well" is a total understatement.  Louisville is playing OUT OF THEIR MINDS right now.  10 straight wins in the tough Big East, and they have won 13 of their last 14, on their way to a 29-5 record.  The only loss was a 5 overtime contest at Notre Dame.  I'm pretty sure we can excuse that as a good loss.  Louisville has beaten 5 ranked teams during that stretch, including Syracuse both on the road and on a neutral court.  They don't have an obvious weak spot in their lineup, and even if they did, their amazing guard play would make up for it.  This is a team that went to the Final Four last year, and returned many players from that team.  They have experience playing good teams in tough environments.  They probably wont get either in their first game: they are playing the winner of a First Four play in game (more information on that HERE), and they are playing very close to home in Lexington, Kentucky.  Louisville will play either North Carolina A&T or Liberty on Thursday, March 21 at 6:50 pm.  If/When they win, they will play the winner of Colorado State and Missouri.  

COLD: (11) Minnesota - Once upon a time the Golden Gophers were 15-1, ranked #8 in the land, and playing incredible basketball. And then the flood gates broke open and they finished the season on a 5-11 run to end up with a 20-12 record.  That's not very good, regardless of what conference you are in.  Luckily, they had enough quality wins that they could still make the tournament as an 11 seed.  Amazingly, they still have 5 wins against ranked teams, but during that 5-11 cold spell they lost to the likes of Purdue, Nebraska, Iowa and Northwestern. None of those teams made the big dance.  I'd say that's a little more than a cold spell: that's an ice age! But the NCAA Tournament is redemption time, and Minnesota will get that chance against 6 seeded UCLA on Friday, March 22 at 9:57 pm. 

HOT: (8) North Carolina - Sometimes you can determine the "hotness" of a team based on the numbers.  Sometimes you have to use the good ol' fashioned eye test.  UNC (24-10) meets that test.  They struggled with team chemistry for most of the season, but really got it together late and have been really clicking on offense.  They have ability to go out any day and outscore any team that they play against.  They are 8-2 in their last 10 games, and even though they lost to Miami (FL) in the ACC championship game, they are still a very dangerous team.  They will play 9 seeded Villanova on Friday, March 22 at 7:20 pm.  If they win, they will (most likely) have a huge showdown with 1 seeded Kansas.

LUKEWARM: (4) Syracuse - If Syracuse aggravates me, I can't even imagine how their fan base feels, or even their coach.  On one hand, they beat 2 ranked teams and make it to the Big East tournament championship game.  On the other hand, they are 4-5 over their last 9 games.  On one hand, every loss was to a ranked team.  On the other hand, several of them were at home, and several others by double digits. So, I'm just going to categorize Syracuse as "lukewarm" because that's exactly what they are.  They have splotchy big man play, and their guards have a horrible tendency to get themselves into foul trouble. The Orange (26-9) will take on the 13 seeded Montana Grizzlies on Thursday, March 21 at 9:57 pm.

HOT: (2) Ohio State - The Buckeyes (26-7) are on fire right now.  They are on a 8 game winning streak that includes wins against 4 ranked teams, including at Indiana.  They just won the Big Ten tournament over Wisconsin, and they made it look easy.  They have great weapons, but the key right now is Aaron Craft.  He is a prototypical passing point guard.  He racks up the assists and steals first, and looks to score second.  This was no the case over the last few games, as Craft has somehow flicked a switch, and is averaging 13 points over his last 5 games.  Craft, along with Deshaun Thomas, will be the keys for Ohio State to make a deep run this year. Ohio State takes on 15 seed Iona on Friday, March 22 at 7:15 pm.

UNBELIEVABLY SCALDING FIERY HOT: (6) Memphis - If you haven't already figured it out, Memphis is playing some very good basketball right now.  They are on a 24-1 streak.  That's incredible. They are 30-4 overall, and currently on a 6 game winning streak after losing to Xavier in late February. They had a perfect 16-0 record in Conference USA, and won the conference tournament with an overtime thriller against Southern Mississippi.  Memphis is extremely athletic, and is poised perfectly to make a good run.  They will take on an 11 seed that will be determined in the First Four, in a game between Saint Mary's and Middle Tennessee State (Preview of that game HERE).  That game will be played on Thursday, March 21 at 2:45 pm.  

So there you have it. The hot and cold (and Syracuse) teams in the tournament.  I hope that this helps you so you can fill out a great bracket and beat your coworkers, or friends, and you HAVE to beat your boss. There will be a sleeper picks post coming out tomorrow, along with continued March Madness coverage every step of the way.  Happy bracket fillings. 'Til next time.