Showing posts with label College Basketball. Show all posts
Showing posts with label College Basketball. Show all posts

Tuesday, February 19, 2013

The Year of the Stretch Forward

In the last two weeks since my rankings came out, there have been many changes: upsets, shocking victories, and the Chinese New Year.  That's right, on February 10th we officially entered The Year of Snake.  So, in honor of The Year of the Snake, I am naming this college basketball season "The Year of the Stretch Forward".

The stretch forward, or stretch four, is a term used to designate a player that plays at the power forward position, but has skills that are not normally associated with a power forward, namely: the ability to knock down a three pointer. The difference between a traditional forward and a stretch forward is purely on the offensive end. The stretch forward has the ability to play inside and around the perimeter, thus stretching out the defense.  Made popular in the NBA by players like Ryan Anderson, Kevin Love, and Ersan Ilyasova, the stretch forward position, if played correctly, can become a team's most dangerous weapon on offense. Recently however, college teams have began recruiting and developing players to play this role, and for many of them, it is working very well.  I am going to highlight five of the best in the college game at this position, and show the impact they are having on their teams.

Erik Murphy - Florida Gators - 6'10" 238 lbs. 
The senior (pictured right) from South Kingston, Rhode Island is one of the best stretch forwards in the nation.  He is averaging 12.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game for the 5th ranked Gators.  Murphy, a career 44% three point shooter, is shooting a blazing 50% from 3 this year, making 52 of his 104 attempts from deep.  He is an 83% free throw shooter, and also takes care of the ball: only 1.4 turnovers per game.  Murphy has led Florida to a 21-3 record, and a first place standing in the SEC with an 11-1 conference record. They are in running for a potential 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, with ESPN projecting them for one of the four coveted top seeds.  Florida arguably would not be in the situation they are now without Murphy, who has stepped up in a huge way in the last few weeks as Florida's front line has been plagued by injuries   Look for Murphy to lead his Gators deep into the NCAA Tournament this year.

Romero Osby - Oklahoma Sooners - 6'8" 232 lbs.
Osby is making a big name for himself in Norman.  The transfer from Mississippi State has played his last two seasons of eligibility with the Sooners.  Known as a lock-down defender, Osby has improved on offense to become the leading scorer for Oklahoma averaging 14 points per game.  He is shooting 56% from three this year, and grabbing 7 rebounds per game as well.  He doesn't take a lot of threes, but his ability to knock them down is what often opens up lanes for him to drive, which is exactly what he did to score 17 points in Oklahoma's upset win last week over #5 Kansas.  As for the rest of the team, Oklahoma is 16-8 with a 7-5 conference record.  They have quality wins over Kansas, and Oklahoma State; and no bad losses  so far.  They are being projected for an 8 seed in the tournament, and 5-1 or even a 4-2 record to finish out the season should place them safely in the NCAA Tournament. 

Doug McDermott - Creighton Bluejays - 6'8" 225 lbs.
You have to love those coach's sons.  Greg McDermott, Doug's father and Creighton's head coach, has to be pleased with his son's (and his team's) play this year.  Creighton is #1 nationally in 3 point percentage at 43%, and #2 in 3 pointers made per game at 9.3.  Doug McDermott is averaging 22.9 points per game, which is good for 3rd in the nation.  He also adds 7.8 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game.  Doug has shot 48% from 3 the last two years, and adds an 86% mark from the charity stripe.  He is not afraid to shoot the ball, hoisting 118 attempts so far this year, and making 57 of them.  Doug McDermott went to Ames High School in Ames, Iowa where he was teammates with All-American and now Golden State Warrior, Harrison Barnes.  During McDermott's and Barnes' junior and senior seasons they posted a 53-0 record, and won two state championships.  Now McDermott has led his Creighton team to a 21-6 record, and they have been ranked most of the year.  They have however fallen a bit in conference play in the Missouri Valley Conference  and trail Wichita State by 1 game.  The good news is the Shockers have to travel to Omaha and take on Creighton in the last game of the year on March 2nd.  Both teams are projected to get seed somewhere in the 7-9 range in the NCAA Tournament. 

Ryan Kelly - Duke Blue Devils - 6'11" 230 lbs. 
Senior Ryan Kelly is by far the most valuable player for Duke this year.  He has averaged 13.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game this year to go along with 52% shooting from three.  His defense is incredible: he's known as a shut-down post defender.  He is deadly in transition shooting the three, and is an 80% free throw shooter.  The only problem is that he has been out with a leg injury since January 12th.  This is where you realize just how valuable Kelly is to Duke: they are 15-0 with Kelly, including 3 wins over top 5 teams, and they are 7-3 since then, going 0-2 against ranked teams.  This included a 27 point thrashing they took at Miami.  After losing to Maryland this past weekend, Duke has fallen to #6 in the rankings.  They are still projected for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but how far they go in that tournament will solely depend on the heath of Ryan Kelly, who is projected to be healthy by the time the tournament starts. 

Kyle Wiltjer - Kentucky Wildcats - 6'10" 239 lbs.
In a season that has been highlighted by disappointments for the defending national champions, Kyle Wiltjer has been a bight spot for Kentucky.  The sophomore from Portland, Oregon has been a great scoring option for the Wildcats, averaging 11.8 points and 4.6 rebounds per game.  The 41% three point shooter showed up the biggest in Kentucky's most pivotal game of the season against then #16 Ole Miss.  The game was in Oxford, Mississippi, and Wiltjer silenced the crowed with 26 points, including 5 threes.  Kentucky, who is clinging to a tournament spot received more bad news last week, as standout center Nerlens Noel tore his ACL and is out for the season.  In their first game without him, Kentucky suffered a 30 point defeat to Tennessee who is just a .500 SEC team.  Kentucky sits at 17-8 with an 8-4 SEC record.  They will have to prove themselves in their 6 remaining games to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament, where they are currently projected for a 10 seed.  

I can't believe that March Madness is almost here! This has been a crazy year for college basketball, and I'm pretty sure that it will only get crazier from this point on.  I will be releasing the second edition of my Straight Up Index rankings tomorrow.  'Til next time. 

Thursday, February 7, 2013

The Straight Up Index

As I was surveying the college basketball landscape this weekend, I really liked what I saw.  Great teams, players, coaches, and conferences all battling for supremacy.  However, I have one problem: rankings.  The sports world, and specifically college basketball, is overflowing with information about rankings.  By simply tweaking a formula to favor a certain type of win, you can make a case for your team to be number 1.  Human made polls are no better.  Sportswriters and journalists in the AP Poll are often biased towards a certain conference or team, and you can't expect all the coaches in the USA Today Coaches Poll to know what's happening to every team, and watch games to determine who should be ranked where.  These complaints aside, there are some very positive things about the different types of polls out there.  So I came up with the idea to combine them into what I am going to call the Straight Up Index (SUI). This index will take several of the different polls and ranking systems and combine them into one giant composite ranking. Here are the rankings that I will be using:

RPI (Ratings Percentage Index): The RPI system ranks teams based on wins, losses, and strength of schedule. RPI is made up of three factors: the team's winning percentage (25%), its opponents' winning percentage (50%), and the winning percentage of those opponents' opponents (25%).  It is a good system that looks directly at who you beat, and how good they are.  

The Human Polls: I am combining the AP Top 25 and the USA Today Coaches Poll into one category. As mentioned above these polls are subject to bias, but are a good representation of the college basketball landscape, especially because voters can use the "eye test" (how a team appears based solely on the fact that they play a certain way, and they are better/worse than their record).  The AP Poll is probably more widely accepted (it's the one that gives you the number next to the team's name on TV), but both are subject to letting an underrated team fall through the cracks (Oregon), or consistently overrating a team (NC State). 

BPI (College Basketball Power Index): The BPI is a more complex and thorough rating system. but it takes into account many things that matter at the end of year when the tournament starts in March. The BPI takes into consideration several categories: where the game is played (home, neutral, road), pace of game, diminishing returns for blowing out bad teams, scoring margin, strength of schedule, and playing games without key players.  As you can see, it is a much more thorough system than the RPI, which is both a good and bad thing.  

Kenpom (Ken Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings): Ken Pomeroy's (Kenpom for short) rating system is a really confusing formula that crunches a lot of numbers that spits out a really good ranking system.  It has quickly gown to become the number 1 online formula based ranking system over the last few years, even if most people (myself included) don't understand how it works. 

So now you know where I am getting the rankings that make up the Straight Up Index.  My formula is quite simple: Each rankings system is worth 25% of the Index (except the human polls, which I will combine so each one is worth 12.5%).  A team gets 25 points if they are ranked number 1 in a poll, 24 if they are ranked number 2, and so on, all the way down to number 25, who will receive 1 point.  With each poll taking up 25% of the Index, 100 points would be a perfect score (#1 in every poll).  After giving every team the composite score, I will rank them simply based on who scored the most points. 

Here is the first edition of the Straight Up Index college basketball rankings (data is through games of Wednesday, February 6th):

SUI Ranking
Team
RPI
HP
BPI
KP
SUI
#1
Florida
3
2
3
1
95
#2
Duke
1
4
1
5
93
#3
Michigan
4
3
4
4
89
#4
Indiana
12
1
2
2
87
#5
Louisville
8
11.5
5
3
76.5
#6
Syracuse
7
9
6
7
75
#7
Arizona
5
7
7
12
73
#8
Gonzaga
10
6
8
9
71
#9
Miami (FL)
2
9.5
12
10
70.5
#10
Kansas
9
5
9
13
68
#11
Ohio State
17
10
10
8
59
#12
Minnesota
11
18
11
11
53
#13
Michigan State
13
10
17
15
49
#14
New Mexico
6
15.5
19
NR
37.5
#15
Pittsburgh
NR
24
13
6
35
#16
Creighton
NR
14.5
14
18
31.5
#17
Cincinnati
NR
17
15
20
26
#18
Colorado State
15
NR
21
16
26
#19
Butler
14
14
NR
NR
24
#20
Marquette
16
25
20
22
21
#21
Oklahoma State
NR
23
18
19
18
#22
NC State
19
NR
16
NR
17
#23
Kansas State
23
14
NR
NR
15
#24
Wisconsin
NR
NR
24
14
14
#25
VCU
NR
NR
22
21
9
Also receiving points: Belmont (8), Oregon (7), San Diego State (7), Georgetown (6.5), Oklahoma (6), Missouri (5.5), UNLV (5), Ole Miss (4.5), Connecticut (4), Saint Mary's (2), Wichita State (2), Colorado (1), Notre Dame (1)
HP=Human Polls, KP=Kenpom, SUI=Straight Up Index

Analysis: For the inaugural edition of the Straight Up Index, there is not much analysis about who moved where, because, well, it's the first one.  I do think that the SUI ranking is a very fair and equal composite ranking of several major ranking systems. I am going to try to put out new rankings every 7-10 days.  They will be posted on the main page of the blog like this one is.  The SUI rankings will be displayed on the left sidebar of the blog, so you can see who the 10 is at any given time.

Big Game Forecast: Here I will be highlighting the marquee games that are coming up over the next week (all times Eastern, and all rankings AP - the ones you see on TV - as of February 7th):
February 9th:
#3 Michigan @ Wisconsin (12:00 pm), North Carolina @ #6 Miami (FL) (2:00 pm), #23 Pittsburgh @ #17 Cincinnati (6:00 pm), #11 Louisville @ #25 Notre Dame (9:00 pm), #15 New Mexico @ UNLV (9:00 pm)
February 10th:
#1 Indiana @ #10 Ohio State (1:00 pm)
February 11th:
#24 Marquette @ #20 Georgetown (7:00 pm), #13 Kansas State @ #5 Kansas (9:00 pm)
February 12th:
Kentucky @ #2 Florida (7:00 pm), #3 Michigan @ #12 Michigan State (9:00 pm)
February 13th:
North Carolina @ #4 Duke (9:00 pm)
February 14th:
Wisconsin @ #18 Minnesota (7:00 pm), #7 Arizona @ Colorado (10:00 pm), #6 Gonzaga @ Saint Mary's (11:00 pm)

I have always wanted to have my own ranking system.  Now that I have the formula down, I am going to create the Straight Up Index - College Football Recruiting Rankings to recap signing day for the 2013 class. As Dick Vitale would say "Enjoy these hoops BABY! They won't be here forever!" He's right: watch as much as you can, because once March Madness is over you are going to look back and wish you watched more.  So get out there, put that game face on, and watch some great basketball.  And if you miss some games, I'll just fill you in next week.  'Til next time.