The Year of the Stretch Forward

In the last two weeks since my rankings came out, there have been many changes: upsets, shocking victories, and the Chinese New Year.  That's right, on February 10th we officially entered The Year of Snake.  So, in honor of The Year of the Snake, I am naming this college basketball season "The Year of the Stretch Forward".

The stretch forward, or stretch four, is a term used to designate a player that plays at the power forward position, but has skills that are not normally associated with a power forward, namely: the ability to knock down a three pointer. The difference between a traditional forward and a stretch forward is purely on the offensive end. The stretch forward has the ability to play inside and around the perimeter, thus stretching out the defense.  Made popular in the NBA by players like Ryan Anderson, Kevin Love, and Ersan Ilyasova, the stretch forward position, if played correctly, can become a team's most dangerous weapon on offense. Recently however, college teams have began recruiting and developing players to play this role, and for many of them, it is working very well.  I am going to highlight five of the best in the college game at this position, and show the impact they are having on their teams.

Erik Murphy - Florida Gators - 6'10" 238 lbs. 

The senior (pictured right) from South Kingston, Rhode Island is one of the best stretch forwards in the nation.  He is averaging 12.7 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.6 assists per game for the 5th ranked Gators.  Murphy, a career 44% three point shooter, is shooting a blazing 50% from 3 this year, making 52 of his 104 attempts from deep.  He is an 83% free throw shooter, and also takes care of the ball: only 1.4 turnovers per game.  Murphy has led Florida to a 21-3 record, and a first place standing in the SEC with an 11-1 conference record. They are in running for a potential 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, with ESPN projecting them for one of the four coveted top seeds.  Florida arguably would not be in the situation they are now without Murphy, who has stepped up in a huge way in the last few weeks as Florida's front line has been plagued by injuries   Look for Murphy to lead his Gators deep into the NCAA Tournament this year.

Romero Osby - Oklahoma Sooners - 6'8" 232 lbs.

Osby is making a big name for himself in Norman.  The transfer from Mississippi State has played his last two seasons of eligibility with the Sooners.  Known as a lock-down defender, Osby has improved on offense to become the leading scorer for Oklahoma averaging 14 points per game.  He is shooting 56% from three this year, and grabbing 7 rebounds per game as well.  He doesn't take a lot of threes, but his ability to knock them down is what often opens up lanes for him to drive, which is exactly what he did to score 17 points in Oklahoma's upset win last week over #5 Kansas.  As for the rest of the team, Oklahoma is 16-8 with a 7-5 conference record.  They have quality wins over Kansas, and Oklahoma State; and no bad losses  so far.  They are being projected for an 8 seed in the tournament, and 5-1 or even a 4-2 record to finish out the season should place them safely in the NCAA Tournament. 

Doug McDermott - Creighton Bluejays - 6'8" 225 lbs.

You have to love those coach's sons.  Greg McDermott, Doug's father and Creighton's head coach, has to be pleased with his son's (and his team's) play this year.  Creighton is #1 nationally in 3 point percentage at 43%, and #2 in 3 pointers made per game at 9.3.  Doug McDermott is averaging 22.9 points per game, which is good for 3rd in the nation.  He also adds 7.8 rebounds and 1.9 assists per game.  Doug has shot 48% from 3 the last two years, and adds an 86% mark from the charity stripe.  He is not afraid to shoot the ball, hoisting 118 attempts so far this year, and making 57 of them.  Doug McDermott went to Ames High School in Ames, Iowa where he was teammates with All-American and now Golden State Warrior, Harrison Barnes.  During McDermott's and Barnes' junior and senior seasons they posted a 53-0 record, and won two state championships.  Now McDermott has led his Creighton team to a 21-6 record, and they have been ranked most of the year.  They have however fallen a bit in conference play in the Missouri Valley Conference  and trail Wichita State by 1 game.  The good news is the Shockers have to travel to Omaha and take on Creighton in the last game of the year on March 2nd.  Both teams are projected to get seed somewhere in the 7-9 range in the NCAA Tournament. 

Ryan Kelly - Duke Blue Devils - 6'11" 230 lbs. 

Senior Ryan Kelly is by far the most valuable player for Duke this year.  He has averaged 13.4 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.5 assists per game this year to go along with 52% shooting from three.  His defense is incredible: he's known as a shut-down post defender.  He is deadly in transition shooting the three, and is an 80% free throw shooter.  The only problem is that he has been out with a leg injury since January 12th.  This is where you realize just how valuable Kelly is to Duke: they are 15-0 with Kelly, including 3 wins over top 5 teams, and they are 7-3 since then, going 0-2 against ranked teams.  This included a 27 point thrashing they took at Miami.  After losing to Maryland this past weekend, Duke has fallen to #6 in the rankings.  They are still projected for a 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament, but how far they go in that tournament will solely depend on the heath of Ryan Kelly, who is projected to be healthy by the time the tournament starts. 

Kyle Wiltjer - Kentucky Wildcats - 6'10" 239 lbs.

In a season that has been highlighted by disappointments for the defending national champions, Kyle Wiltjer has been a bight spot for Kentucky.  The sophomore from Portland, Oregon has been a great scoring option for the Wildcats, averaging 11.8 points and 4.6 rebounds per game.  The 41% three point shooter showed up the biggest in Kentucky's most pivotal game of the season against then #16 Ole Miss.  The game was in Oxford, Mississippi, and Wiltjer silenced the crowed with 26 points, including 5 threes.  Kentucky, who is clinging to a tournament spot received more bad news last week, as standout center Nerlens Noel tore his ACL and is out for the season.  In their first game without him, Kentucky suffered a 30 point defeat to Tennessee who is just a .500 SEC team.  Kentucky sits at 17-8 with an 8-4 SEC record.  They will have to prove themselves in their 6 remaining games to secure a spot in the NCAA Tournament, where they are currently projected for a 10 seed.  

I can't believe that March Madness is almost here! This has been a crazy year for college basketball, and I'm pretty sure that it will only get crazier from this point on.  I will be releasing the second edition of my Straight Up Index rankings tomorrow.  'Til next time. 

Can You Feel the Madness?

It's in the air. It's that time again. It's March Madness!

This is my favorite time of year. I also say that phrase about five other times when different sports go down to the wire.  But this has to be the best. In less than a month, 1 team out of 68 will be crowned NCAA Division 1 Men's Basketball Champions.  But just as those teams are about to embark in a month of mayhem to see who comes out on top, you are also most likely eyeing a struggle of your own: the bracket. Whether it's with your co-workers, friends, schoolmates, or family, you have to win! However, that's a lot easier said than done. The key to picking a winning bracket, is not only picking the winner, but making sure one of your final four teams doesn't get upset.  Here is where I come in.  This is a list of 10 potential sleeper teams, or teams that could pull off an upset or two, and maybe even become the next Butler:

Wichita State (27-5):
Not a true sleeper team, getting a 5 seed, but the Shockers are a team that I believe can go far in the tournament. They have a very winnable matchup against 12 seed VCU, and would play the winner of Indiana, and New Mexico State. They finished ranked number 16 in the AP Poll, and boast a 16-2 record in the very difficult Missouri Valley Conference.  The Shockers are a veteran team with great senior leadership, led by Joe Ragland's 48% from behind the arc.  This balanced attack can adapt to any style of play: they can slow it down, run-and-gun, or pound it into the paint.  They have good wins against Creighton, UNLV, and a 17 point thrashing of Davidson. This is a scary team to play.

Colorado (23-11):
Colorado was not supposed to get into the tournament after an up and down year in the Pac 12. But they went on an absolute tear in the Pac 12 tournament, beating Arizona for the title, and earning an automatic bid. This team is a sleeper simple because they are hot.  After winning a tight contest against Oregon, they beat favorite Cal by 11, playing their way to an 11 seed.  They play a streaky UNLV team in the first round.  If Colorado can contain the potent play of UNLV forward Mike Moser, and continue their hot shooting, it might be their time to pull an upset or two.

South Dakota State (27-7):
The Jackrabbits, a 14 seed, champions out of the Summit League, are the perfect team to pull an upset. They have an incredible guard in Nate Wolters, who averages 21.3 points, and 6.0 assists per game. Though he only shoots 24% from three point, the rest of the team nails 43% from deep.  The Jackrabbits do lack in size in the post, but they have a tantalizing matchup with Baylor. Baylor is a very good and athletic team, but they have been plagued by inconsistency, especially in big games.  South Dakota State, with their solid guard play, could be the perfect team to take advantage of this. They only allow 57.3 points a game, and they must slow it down like that if they are to beat Baylor.

Long Beach State (25-8):
I absolutely love this team. They have the perfect combination of good shooting guards, and big men that can run the floor.  As a 12 seed, they played one of the toughest schedules in the nation, having a "go anywhere, play anybody" mentality. This has paid off, as they went 15-1 in Big West play.  They are battle tested, and will not be intimidated by big games, or tough opponents. They beat Pittsburgh and Xavier, and played Kansas, UNC, and Louisville tough. They play New Mexico, a 5 seed, in the first round. New Mexico is a ferocious squad, who attacks the boards very well. Can Long Beach State prevail, behind the dynamic guard play of Casper Ware and Larry Anderson.

Davidson (25-7):
To say that the Wildcats can shoot the three is an understatement. They are one of the better three point shooting teams in the country, and are also a very clutch free throw shooting team as well.  They beat Kansas by 6 on the road, which was the highlight win of their season. But it took them 2 overtimes to beat Western Carolina in the Southern Conference Championship. Another good strength of Davidson is their ability to rebound, averaging 38.9 per game, which is good for 19th in the country. But all of that is about to be tested, when they take on 4 seed Louisville, fresh of a victory in the Big East tournament.  But as we well know, a team that can shoot the three is always capable of an upset!

Colorado State (20-11): 
The Rams have squeaked their way into the tournament, receiving an 11 seed, out of an unusually good Mountain West Conference. They had an 8-6 conference record, with good wins against UNLV, San Diego State, and New Mexico. They don't have much of a post presence, but can knock down the three. Led by Wes Eikmeier, they are one of the better three point shooting teams in the country, and one that you can never count out of a game.  However, they are taking on one of the best three point shooting teams in the country, Murray State, who finished the season 30-1. Can Colorado State stick with the Racers long enough to pull off an upset? We will see!

Southern Mississippi (25-8): 

The Golden Eagles, a 9 seed out of Conference-USA, have plenty of late game experience. They have had 5 overtime games, with two going into double overtime. One of these double overtime games was a loss to Murray State. They play Kansas State for their first game, and are liable to take down anyone with their outstanding depth. They have six players that score between 9.5 and 12.2 points per game. But will this balanced attack be enough to knock off the Wildcats? 

Montana (25-6):

The Grizzlies, or "The Griz" as they are known, have played their way to a 13 seed, strutting a 15-1 conference record in the Big Sky. They have won their last 14 games, and are a solid all-around team. They -have size in 7-footer Derek Selvig, but have yet to face a test. They are getting one in their first game, however. The Wisconsin Badgers, out of a very good Big Ten Conference, will take on the Griz. Wisconsin, however, has been prone to upsets in the last few years. They play a very slow pace. Can the Griz, an unknown, pull off the upset? 

Creighton (28-5): 
They Bluejays have had a great year, and come into the tournament red hot as an 8 seed.  Creighton has won their last 7 games to cap off a 14-4 season within the Missouri Valley Conference, led by the dynamic play of coach's son, Doug McDermott. They are the nation's most accurate shooting team at 50.9%. They have good leadership and experience, with wins against Wichita State, San Diego State, and Long Beach State. They get 9 seed Alabama in the first round, with the winner taking on (probably) UNC. Creighton has the ability to play with a team like that, but they have to keep McDermott out of foul trouble and play solid ball down to the wire.

NC State (22-12):
The Wolfpack are pumped and ready to go, getting an 11 seed after a 9-7 campaign in the ACC. Led by C.J. Leslie, the Pack look to knock off San Diego State.  They made a good run in the ACC tournament, beating Boston College and Virginia before losing a heartbreaker to UNC. Leslie fouled out with 8 minuets to play, and the Wolfpack were unable to hold on against UNC's late game surge. Richard Howell is a great compliment to Leslie, and Scott Wood adds a deadly three point shot.  NC State is definitely a team that could go deep into the tournament if they get hot at the right time.

Well there you have it. 10 sleepers that may just surprise a few folks this year.  If you have any last minute questions, please use the comment section below. I will get back to you as soon as possible. Normally I would ramble on and on here about how Spring Training has started (see I just did it), and other sports, but all I can focus on is college basketball.  'Til next time.